Many things can cause a K shift. An important factor is internal bulb pressure and temperature. The pressure and heat are both a function of the rise in Ar (Argon ) gas pressure and Hg (Mercury) vapor pressure. OD a lamp can make both of these rise. Increased bulb pressure increases output and makes the lamp produce more lumens / watt. Ar, in a fluor lamps, does not add light as it does in a MV, MH or HPS. It purpose is to make the lamp have more output with less wattage. Fluor's are LID (Low Intensity Discharge) Lamps and do not produce enough energy to ionize the Argon gas. If it did, it would change the K value, as the Ar is producing visible light. Almost all the light in a fluor produced is UV, where its wavelength is lengthened by the phosphors.
OD can cause a deterioration of the phosphor coating. The filaments also break down more quickly and leave a emissive material on the inner surface of the bulb. Both of these will cause a shift in K and light output. You guys need to remember that light bulb data is based on std tests. For example, x type HO lamp running at an ambient room temp of 60 F will produce 100 % output. Taking that same lamp and increasing it to 80 F will reduce the output to almost 90 %. HO's actual produce more light at lower ambient room temp than NO's. It takes more UV energy to drive some phosphors than others, where other phosphors require less UV energy. This shift in temp or pressure changes the energy output of mercury. This and the above change the output and K.