If I remember correctly, the one-stage is about $80 and the two-stage is about $130.
Big bite all at once, but good insurance.
Concerning replacing heaters, the only three reasons I am aware of to replace a heater are:
1) it is a glass heater, and the glass cracks. This shouldn't happen if you keep your heater submerged. If it does happen, the short circut will trip your GFCI. Buy a new heater.
2) the heater element burns out. I've never had this happen. If it did happen, your tank would gradually get cold. Simply replace the heater then.
3) the thermostat in the heater fails. This can go two ways - your heater doesn't come on and your tank gradually gets cold. Time to replace. Or, your heater doesn't shut off, and you cook your tank (if your heater is large enough).
The last case, above, is the most catastrophic, and will cost you the most grief as well as the the most money in replacing the lost livestock. And it is this last case that is the best justification for buying a controller like the Ranco. Getting the two-state instead of the single stage just gives the added benifit of more overheating protection.