http://apps1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/publications/pdfs/ssl/lifetime_white_leds_aug16_r1.pdf
All electric light sources experience a decrease in the amount of light they emit over time, a
process known as lumen depreciation. Incandescent filaments evaporate over time and the
tungsten particles collect on the bulb wall. This typically results in 10-15% depreciation
compared to initial lumen output over the 1,000 hour life of an incandescent lamp.
In fluorescent lamps, photochemical degradation of the phosphor coating and
accumulation of light-absorbing deposits cause lumen depreciation. Compact fluorescent
lamps (CFLs) generally lose no more than 20% of initial lumens over their 10,000 hour
life. High-quality linear fluorescent lamps (T8 and T5) using rare earth phosphors will
lose only about 5% of initial lumens at 20,000 hours of operation.
The primary cause of LED lumen depreciation is heat generated at the LED junction.
LEDs do not emit heat as infrared radiation (IR), so the heat must be removed from
the device by conduction or convection. Without adequate heat sinking or ventilation,
the device temperature will rise, resulting in lower light output.
While the effects of short-term exposure to high temperatures can be reversed, continuous high temperature
operation will cause permanent reduction in light output. LEDs continue to operate even
after their light output has decreased to very low levels.
To provide an appropriate measure of useful life of an LED, a level of acceptable lumen
depreciation must be chosen. At what point is the light level no longer meeting the needs
of the application? The answer may differ depending on the application of the product.
For a common application such as general lighting in an office environment, research
has shown that the majority of occupants in a space will accept light level reductions of
up to 30% with little notice, particularly if the reduction is gradual.1 Therefore a level
of 70% of initial light level could be considered an appropriate threshold of useful life
for general lighting. Based on this research, the Alliance for Solid State Illumination
Systems and Technologies (ASSIST), a group led by the Lighting Research Center (LRC),